Know Where the Race Stands

DemoSample Polling Report

Sample Campaign | January 15-19, 2026 | n=1,570 Likely Voters | MoE +/-2.5%

Candidate Images

Favorability ratings for tested candidates

c/e

co/efficient Insight

Johnson and Anderson are tied for the strongest net image at +7, but Johnson has the advantage on name recognition.

Sample insight shown for demo purposes.

Favorability Ratings

Favorable

Unsure

Never Heard

Unfavorable

Name Recognition

Johnson

92%

Anderson

88%

Smith

87%

Franklin

61%

Roberts

56%

Net Favorability

Johnson+7

Anderson+7

Smith+3

Franklin-2

Roberts-3

Ballot Scores

If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for?

c/e

co/efficient Insight

Smith holds a narrow 3-point lead, but 14% undecided and a Roberts edge with Independents keep the persuadable middle highly competitive.

Sample insight shown for demo purposes.

Initial Ballot

Smith (R)

43%

Roberts (D)

40%

Franklin (I)

Undecided

14%

Smith +3

Outside margin of error

Key Battlegrounds

Indep/Oth 30% / 32% Roberts +2

Female 42% / 40% Smith +2

35-44 40% / 40% Tied

18-34 35% / 38% Roberts +3

Moderate 35% / 38% Roberts +3

Smith leads across 65+, conservative, and male voters. Closing the gap with moderates and 18-34 is critical.

Vote Intensity

Smith (R) -- 43%

Def vote: 28%
Prob vote: 10%
Lean toward: 5%

65% hard commit (Def+Prob)

Roberts (D) -- 40%

Def vote: 24%
Prob vote: 11%
Lean toward: 5%

60% hard commit (Def+Prob)

Crosstab Breakdown

Demographic	Smith (R)	Roberts (D)	Franklin (I)	Undecided

Most Important Issues

What is the most important issue facing your community today?

c/e

co/efficient Insight

Economy / Jobs leads overall at 28%, but Immigration / Border overperforms with Independents at 22%, making it a strong secondary persuasion issue.

Sample insight shown for demo purposes.

Issue Priority

Partisan Issue Gap

Economy R32% | D20% | I28%

Immigration R16% | D14% | I22%

Healthcare R12% | D18% | I10%

Crosstab Breakdown

Demographic	Economy	Immigr.	Health	Educ.	Crime	Taxes	Enviro.	Other

Message Testing

After hearing each message, are you more or less likely to support the candidate?

c/e

co/efficient Insight

After message exposure, Smith leads Roberts 47% to 38%, with Tax Cuts, Border Crisis, and Bureaucrats generating the strongest positive responses.

Sample insight shown for demo purposes.

Message Response

More Likely

No Difference

Less Likely

Regression Analysis

Message	Coeff	SE	p	Sig
Tax Cuts	0.412	0.087	0.001	***
Border Crisis	0.381	0.091	0.003	***
Bureaucrats	0.294	0.094	0.012	**
Antisemitism	0.227	0.102	0.026	**
Tariffs	-0.048	0.098	0.624	n.s.
Dom. Drilling	0.011	0.099	0.912	n.s.
Double Talk	-0.102	0.096	0.287	n.s.

*** p < 0.01 ** p < 0.05 n.s. = not significant

Informed Ballot

Ballot after message exposure

Smith (R)

47%

Roberts (D)

38%

Franklin (I)

Undecided

12%

Smith +4 Roberts -2 Undec -2

Top Performers

Highest "more likely" responses

Tax Cuts53%

Border Crisis50%

Bureaucrats49%

Information Flow Analysis

Three-question battery: penetration, channel, and impact

c/e

co/efficient Insight

Our message penetration grew from 28% to 68%, outpacing the opponent and ending January with a 13-point advantage.

Sample insight shown for demo purposes.

Message Penetration

Ours Opp

+40 pts

Our growth

+13 pts

Advantage (Jan)

Channel Penetration

TV Mail Digital Other

Channel	Aug	Sep	Nov	Dec	Jan	Chg
TV/Cable	12%	19%	28%	34%	38%	+26
Mail	8%	14%	22%	27%	31%	+23
Social/Digital	10%	16%	21%	24%	28%	+18
Other	5%	7%	9%	11%	12%	+7

Our Impact

Net +26

44% more / 18% less

Opponent Impact

Net -8

24% more / 32% less

Trend Analysis

Tracking key metrics across 6 survey waves -- June 2025 through January 2026

c/e

co/efficient Insight

As undecided voters fall from 27% to 17%, Smith gains 7 points and turns a 1-point deficit into a 3-point lead.

Sample insight shown for demo purposes.

Horse Race Ballot Trend

Smith (R) Roberts (D) Undecided

Candidate Fav

52% 62%

+10 pts

Opponent Unfav

36% 44%

+8 pts (rising negatives)

Right Direction

33% 42%

+9 pts

Wave Summary

Smith: 36% -> 43% +7 Roberts: 37% -> 40% +3 Margin: -1 -> +3 Undecided: 27% -> 17% -10

Methodology

Study design, data collection, and quality assurance

Sample Size

n = 1,570 Likely Voters

Field Dates

January 15-19, 2026

Margin of Error

+/-2.5% at 95% CI

Mode

Multi-Mode

Geography

Statewide

Universe

Likely Voters

Language

English and Spanish

Sponsor

Sample Campaign Cmte

Weighting & Quality

Data weighted to match expected electorate by party, gender, age, race/ethnicity, and geography using iterative raking. LV screen used self-reported vote intention, past vote history, and stated interest.

Sample Demographics

Demographic	Sample	Target
Republican	36%	35%
Democrat	34%	34%
Indep / Other	30%	31%
Female	52%	53%
Male	48%	47%
18-34	18%	17%
35-44	16%	16%
45-54	19%	19%
55-64	21%	22%
65+	26%	26%
White	62%	63%
Black	14%	13%
Hispanic	16%	16%
Other	8%	8%
Urban	34%	33%
Suburban	42%	43%
Rural	24%	24%

Strategic Polling& Research